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Home How to Trade in Stocks Reminiscences Jesse Livermore Books
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Jesse Lauriston Livermore
was born on July 26, 1877 in Acton, Massachusetts.
Jesse Livermore started his trading career at the age of
fifteen. He ran away from home with his mother's blessing to
escape a life of farming his father wished him to have. He then
began his career by posting stock quotes at the Paine Webber
brokerage in Boston.
Jesse Livermore began his working life at the age of 14, as a
quotation board boy in a stockbroker's office. It was 1891 when
he began to work in Paine Weber & Co's Boston stockbroking
offices. With several other boys, he transferred prices from
ticker-tape to quotation board. He was, he believed,
particularly suited to the job because of his strong abilities
in mental arithmetic and number memorization.
Stock prices came into the stockbroker's offices on a ticker
tape, a continuous strip of paper bringing the prices from Wall
Street. It was Jesse Livermore's job to take the prices from the
tape and write them on the board for the stockbroker's customers
to see. Little did the 14 year old boy realize that, for the
rest of his life, his fortunes would be inextricably linked to
the tape and his ability to read its message?
As time passed, Jesse Livermore began to believe he could
discern patterns, or repetitions, in the waves of numbers that
flowed each day from the tape. He began to write the numbers in
a notebook and tested himself, predicting the direction that
different stock prices would take:
"Say that after studying every fluctuation of the day in Sugar I
would conclude that the stock was behaving as she always did
before she broke eight or ten points. Well, I would jot down the
stock and the price on Monday, and remembering past performances
I would write down what it ought to do on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Later I would check up with the actual transcriptions from the
tape.”
“That is how I first came to take an interest in the message of
the tape. The fluctuations were from the first associated in my
mind with upward or downward movements. Of course there is
always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern
itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn't go into
explanations... The reason for what a certain stock does today
may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months. But
what the dickens does that matter? Your business with the tape
is now - not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act
instantly or be left. Time and again I see this happen."
The Boy Plunger While working, he would write down certain hunches he had about
future market prices, which he would check for accuracy later. A
friend convinced him to put in his first money trade. He risked
$5 and made $3.12 in profit from his first trade from Burlington
stock. With these humble beginnings, he began trading for
himself.
The story is this: One day another office boy told Jesse
Livermore that he had been given a tip to buy shares in
Burlington and asked if Livermore had any money to join him,
predicting they would quickly double their money. Jesse
Livermore took out his notebook and looked at the prices he had
recorded for Burlington. In Jesse Livermore's estimation,
Burlington's price was acting in the way he would expect it to
if it were going to rise.
Jesse Livermore invested all he had in Burlington - just a few
dollars - and was rewarded two days later with $3.12 profit.
Buoyed by his success, in the following months Jesse Livermore
went on to make his first $1,000 - a very large sum indeed - by
virtue of his ability to read the message of the tape.
"After that first trade, I got to speculating on my own hook in
the bucket shops. I'd go during my lunch hour and buy or sell -
it never made any difference to me. I was playing a system and
not a favorite stock or backing opinions. All I knew was the
arithmetic of it. As a matter of fact, mine was the ideal way to
operate in a bucket shop, where all that a trader does is to bet
on fluctuations as they are printed by the ticker on the tape.”
“It was not long before I was taking much more money out of the
bucket shops than I was pulling down from my job in the
brokerage office. So I gave up my position. My folks objected,
but they couldn't say much when they saw what I was making. I
was only a kid and office-boy wages were not very high. I did
mighty well on my own hook."
Having learned that prices could behave predictably, it was time
for the boy Livermore to expand his operations.
At the age of fifteen, he had earned profits of over $1000
(which equates to approximately $90,000 today). However, in
1893, while still only 16 years’ of age, Paine Weber & Co
instructed the young Jesse Livermore that he must either quit
speculating in bucket shops or quit his job. He quit the job.
Bucket Shops In the next several years, he made his money at bucket shops.
These were places where people would enter trades, but no actual
trades were executed; they were betting against the house. Most
people would lose money to the bucket shops because of
fluctuations in stocks that would wipe out their slim margins.
Jesse Livermore would regularly beat the bucket shops and was
eventually banned from them. Since he bet large sums for such a
young lad, he became known as the Boy Plunger. He then devoted
his energies towards trading in legitimate markets. This change
would lead him to devise a new set of rules to beat the market.
In the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, the little
guy who wanted to trade stocks usually did it in a bucket shop
rather than through a stockbroker. Bucket shops were set up in
all sorts of premises, such as drug stores, hotels, cafés, and
many other locations.
In bucket shops, "trades" were carried out instantly at the
price quoted on the board. The prices came from Wall Street by a
variety of means, including ticker-tape and telephone. The
advantages of trading in a bucket shop were:
Bucket shops were happy to deal in very small amounts of money.
There was no delay in trading caused by the time taken to
telephone the order to the trading floor on Wall Street.
Each bucket shop was an internal market, trading on quotes from
Wall Street but not on Wall Street itself.
Bucket shops, in truth, were little more than betting shops,
where fools were quickly parted from their money. Although most
bucket shops were not dishonest to the extent that they would
refuse to pay a winner or that they would pretend prices had
fallen when they had in fact risen, they were adept in employing
more subtle ways of profiting from the greed of the would-be
stock trader.
Trading in bucket shops invariably involved margin. If your
stocks moved in the right direction, you would profit
handsomely. If they moved even slightly against you, you would
lose all of your money. The natural ups and downs of daily
trading served to wipe out most positions, resulting in bucket
shops frequently taking all of the money an individual had
"invested".
Jesse Livermore's ability to interpret patterns in the stock
prices enabled him to beat the bucket shops. He always traded
alone - a lifelong habit.
"I began in the smaller bucket shops, where the man who traded
in twenty shares at a clip was suspected of being John W. Gates
in disguise or J. P. Morgan travelling incognito."
"I kept my business to myself. It was a one-man business,
anyhow. It was my head, wasn't it? Prices either were going the
way I doped them out, without any help from friends or partners,
or they were going the other way, and nobody could stop them out
of kindness to me. I couldn't see where I needed to tell my
business to anybody else. I've got friends, of course, but my
business has always been the same - a one-man affair. That is
why I have always played a lone hand."
Jesse Livermore's success soon caused him problems. Bucket shop
owners began to recognize him as a consistent winner - and they
only wanted to trade against losers. He began having to take
smaller positions than he wanted to, or even lose money in his
first trades, only to later hit the bucket shop with "stings"
where he took large winning positions.
As he became widely recognized, the shops began refusing to take
his trades. They called him the Kid or Boy Plunger. (Plunger was
a euphemism for a reckless gambler.)
"I tried the other branches one after another, but they all got
to know me, and my money wasn't any good in any of their
offices. I couldn't even go in to look at the quotations without
some of the clerks making cracks at me. I tried to get them to
let me trade at long intervals by dividing my visits among them
all. But that didn't work."
Despite the bucket shops refusing to deal with him (if they
recognized him - Jesse Livermore took to disguising himself) or
only trading with him under severe handicaps - such as Jesse
Livermore paying higher prices for stocks he wanted to buy and
getting less for stocks he wanted to sell than other customers -
Jesse Livermore continued to trade profitably. By the age of 20
his fortune had grown to $10,000.
At the heart of Jesse Livermore's spectacular trading success
was the skill he acquired as an eager 14 year old who spent
every day transferring stock prices from ticker tape to quote
board – this ability he believed gave him the skill to deduce
the likely future movements of stock prices.
Jesse Livermore said, "To invest or speculate successfully, one
must form an opinion as to what the next move of importance will
be in a given stock. Speculation is nothing more than
anticipating coming movements. In order to anticipate correctly,
one must have a definite basis for that anticipation... "
Jesse Livermore believed that, if you thought a stock would move
in a certain way, you should enter a trade as early as possible
after the market had confirmed your judgement.
What Patterns Did Livermore Look For? Jesse Livermore liked to trade stocks whose price was moving in
an obvious trend. He was not interested in trading stocks whose
price was meandering - moving up and down with no strong trend -
such as the one shown on the left.
The patterns he sought to identify were patterns in the prices.
Modern traders - and indeed many traders in Jesse Livermore's
time too - plotted the prices and volumes against time on a
chart. Jesse Livermore, however, did not use charts. He
preferred to look at the numbers themselves.
The Pivotal Point Jesse Livermore wrote: "Whenever I have had the patience to wait
for the market to arrive at what I call a Pivotal Point before I
started to trade; I have always made money in my operations."
Jesse Livermore said: "I never benefited much from a move if I
did not get in at somewhere near the beginning of the move. And
the reason is that I missed the backlog of profit which is very
necessary to provide the courage and patience to sit through a
move until the end comes - and to stay through any minor
reactions or rallies which were bound to occur from time to time
before the movement had completed its course."
The Normal Reaction Once a stock had broken out of a trading range, Jesse Livermore
would begin trading. In this case the breakout is downwards and
so Livermore would sell the stock short.
He would look for signs that the new trend was behaving normally
and that it would be safe to stick with the trade.
He had now reached a point where bucket shops began cheating on
prices to prevent him winning. It was time, he realized, to move
on and begin trading through legitimate stockbrokers.
At the age of twenty-one, tired of his problems with bucket
shops, Jesse Livermore arrived in New York. His goal was to
trade in the offices of a member of the New York Stock Exchange.
He began trading at the offices of A.R. Fullerton and Co. and
within six months he had lost all of his funds. In retrospect,
Jesse Livermore realized that trading in the bucket shops had
been a poor preparation for trading in the offices of a
stockbroker. The bucket shops because they did not deal with the
stock exchange, offered immediate execution of buy and sell
orders. In a bucket shop, Jesse Livermore knew the exact prices
he was buying and selling at. Dealing through a legitimate
broker resulted in delays. It took time to telephone Jesse
Livermore's orders through to the exchange and then to execute
the order. According to Jesse Livermore his trading style, which
"was a perfect system for trading in bucket shops, didn't work
in Fullerton's office".
"The price of Sugar on the tape might be 105 and I could see a
three-point drop coming. As a matter of fact, at the very moment
the ticker was printing 105 on the tape the real price on the
floor of the Exchange might be 104 or 103. By the time my order
to sell a thousand shares got to Fullerton's floor man to
execute, the price might be still lower."
" ...in A. R. Fullerton's office the tape always talked ancient
history to me, as far as my system of trading went, and I didn't
realize it. And then, too, if my order was fairly big my own
sale would tend further to depress the price. In the bucket shop
I didn't have to figure on the effect of my own trading. I lost
in New York because the game was altogether different."
So, despite his remarkable powers in interpreting price
patterns, Jesse Livermore's trading style, developed in bucket
shops, was unsuited to trading in real shares.
He returned to the bucket shops - this time in St Louis where he
was less well known. Soon he was recognized and the bucket shops
refused him further business. He had, however, managed to
accumulate enough money to return to New York and resume
trading.
"My task, as I should have known after my first reverses at
Fullerton's, was very simple: To look at speculation from
another angle. But I didn't know that there was much more to the
game than I could possibly learn in the bucket shops. There I
thought I was beating the game when in reality I was only
beating the shop. ... The game taught me the game. And it didn't
spare the rod while teaching."
His ability to read the tape in the stock market boom of the
1901 soon made Livermore rich. He had, however, not fully
learned his lessons about the dangers of the delay in executing
his orders. His trading style still revolved almost entirely
around tape reading and disaster would strike soon enough.
Jesse Livermore's Fortune Reaches $50,000 In May 1901 Jesse Livermore had accumulated $50,000 in cash and
he had turned bearish. In one day of frantic market activity -
when the market moved fast and execution times were slow, Jesse
Livermore's orders were executed at prices as much as 20 or 30
points different from where the market stood when he placed
them.
"The ticker beat me by lagging so far behind the market. I was
accustomed to regarding the tape as the best little friend I had
because I bet according to what it told me. But this time the
tape double-crossed me. The divergence between the printed and
the actual prices undid me. It seems so obvious now that tape
reading is not enough, irrespective of the brokers' execution,
that I wonder why I didn't then see both my trouble and the
remedy for it. I did worse than not see it; I kept on trading,
in and out, regardless of the execution."
By autumn Jesse Livermore was broke again. He returned to the
bucket shops and, by virtue of out-maneuvering crooked operators
with several "stings," he managed once again to get a stake
together. He returned to New York.
"There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for
teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in
order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order
to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!"
During his lifetime, Jesse Livermore gained and lost several
multi-million dollar fortunes. Most notably, he was worth $3
million and $100 million after the 1907 and 1929 market crashes,
respectively. He subsequently lost both fortunes. Apart from his
success as a securities speculator, Jesse Livermore left traders
a working philosophy for trading securities that emphasizes
increasing the size of one's position as it goes in the right
direction and cutting losses quickly.
By the spring of 1906, Jesse Livermore made a profit of $250,000
shorting stocks on a hunch that preceded the San Francisco
earthquake. And by 1914, after several years of a flat market,
with "no money to be made," Jesse Livermore's debts have grown
to well over $1 million. He declared bankruptcy. Of this, he
later said, "My mind now being free to take up trading with some
prospect of success, the next step was to get another stake."
To get back on track, in February 1915, Jesse Livermore asked
Dan Williamson for help. Williamson offered Livermore the
facility to trade 500 shares. Jesse Livermore read the tape for
six weeks before making a trade because he needed to be 100
percent sure the trade would be profitable. Jesse Livermore
bought stock in Bethlehem Steel on high margin at $98. Steel was
rising because of demand from World War I. The price moved
upward as he expected; and, as the stock rose, he bought more at
$115. The following day he sold at $145. He has achieved what he
set out to achieve - he had a sizeable stake again.
Ironically, Jesse Livermore sometimes did not follow his rules
strictly. He claimed that lack of adherence to his own rules was
the main reason for his losses after making his 1907 and 1929
fortunes.
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator The popular book
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefevre, reflects many of those lessons. Jesse
Livermore himself wrote a less widely read book, "How to trade
in stocks; the Jesse Livermore formula for combining time
element and price". It was published in 1940, the same year he
committed suicide. It was later revealed by Jesse Livermore that
he had actually penned the book Reminiscences of a Stock
Operator, and that LeFevre had acted as the editor and coach.
There is some speculation that this partnership between the two
men was not their first collaboration. Since LeFevre was a
writer and journalist, it is thought that he was one of the
friendly newspapermen that Jesse Livermore employed for both
information and planted articles.
Wall Street Success Jesse Livermore became a successful trader at an early age. He
claims to have made 1,000 dollars by the age of 15 trading
stocks. In his book, he claims his parents were against his
trading even after his success because they couldn't understand
how a person who didn't work could make such a sum of money
relatively quickly. Jesse Livermore made his money by following
trends in market prices. He would choose a particular stock or
commodity to buy or short based on its price and volume action.
Then, he would establish relatively small initial positions. He
would then add to his positions if they made him money or sell
them if they were unprofitable. This technique resulted in large
gains and small losses. He also bucked the trends of prevailing
sentiment of the markets at critical points. For example, when
people were exuberant about the markets near the tops in 1907
and 1929, he began short-selling.
After devising his rules, he temporarily disregarded them in
1906. He repeatedly shorted Union Pacific in a rising market and
kept adding to his position even when the stock temporarily
rose. He could not explain why, but he had a strong urge to
short the company. A few days later, the San Francisco
Earthquake of 1906 struck. Jesse Livermore kept adding to his
position and made $250,000.
He first became famous in 1907, when he short sold the market as
it crashed. He noticed conditions where a lack of capital
existed to buy stock. Accordingly, there would be drops in
prices with too many sellers, driven by margin calls. With the
lack of capital, there would be no buyers in sight to absorb the
sold stock, further driving down prices. After the crash and its
aftermath, he was worth $3 million.
He proceeded to lose 90% of that 1907 fortune on a blown cotton
trade. He violated many of his key rules; he listened to another
person's advice (he preferred working alone) and added to a
losing position. He continued losing money in the flat markets
from 1908-1912. He was $1 million in debt and declared
bankruptcy. He proceeded to regain his fortune and repay his
creditors during the World War I bull market and resulting
downtrend.
By late 1915, after several months of successful trading, Jesse
Livermore's balance stood at $145,000. In the very next year of
1916, Jesse Livermore played the market perfectly: he went long
when the market was strongly bullish and then went short when it
turned bearish. He made a cool $3 million profit, and went to
Palm Beach for the winter.
In 1917, while only 40, Jesse Livermore made another $1.5
million profit. With this, he paid back all his debts from 1914.
He also bought $800,000 dollars worth of annuities to ensure his
family has a secure income should he ever be wiped out in the
markets again. He also put money into trusts for his wife and
son. This turned out to be one of his best ever decisions.
The Money Rolls in He owned a series of mansions around the world, each fully
staffed with servants, a fleet of limousines, and a steel-hulled
yacht for trips to Europe. He married Dorothy, a beautiful
Ziegfeld Follies showgirl when he was about 40 years old.
Jesse Livermore continued to make money in the bull markets of
The Roaring 20's. In 1923 he moved his entire operations to
custom-designed offices in the Hecksher Building, Fifth Avenue.
Behind this fortress, Jesse Livermore wishes to be further
removed from Wall Street gossip and to enjoy more secrecy for
his trading operations. Keeping strictly to his own council
worked. In the 1925 wheat market, Jesse Livermore bought grain
in 5 million bushel lots while the market was rising; then
turned bear, at the top of the market, and sold 50 million
bushels short for a profit of $10 million.
In 1929, he noticed market conditions similar to that of the
1907 market. He began shorting various stocks and adding to his
positions and they kept declining in price. When just about
everyone in the markets lost money in the Wall Street crash of
1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million after his
short-selling profits.
Extraordinary Popular Delusions One of Jesse Livermore's favorite books was Extraordinary
Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, by Charles Mackay,
first published in 1841. This was also a favorite book of
Bernard Baruch, a stock trader and close friend of Jesse
Livermore who also was one of the few people that did well in
the crash of 1929.
The Crash of 1929 In 1929, his greatest moment as a trader arrived. He went short
in the great crash of 1929 and made a stupendous profit of
around $100 million. At the moment of his greatest triumph, he
realised the futility of his work.
After the Crash of '29 Dorothy finally filed for divorce and took up temporary
residence in Reno, Nevada, with her new lover, Agent Longcope.
On September 16, 1932, Dorothy divorced Jesse Livermore on
grounds of desertion. They had been married since December 2,
1918 - 14 years. Dorothy retained custody of their boys.
On March 28, 1933, Jesse Livermore married the 38 year old
Harriet Metz Noble in Geneva, Illinois; there was no honeymoon.
It was Harriet's fifth marriage, and all four of her previous
husbands had committed suicide.
Through unknown mechanisms, he yet again lost much of his
trading capital, accumulated through 1929. Thus, on March 7,
1934, the bankrupt Jesse Livermore was automatically suspended
as a member of the Chicago Board of Trade. It was never
disclosed to anyone what happened to the great fortune he had
made in the crash of 1929, but he had lost it all.
In 1933, the police were called when Jesse Livermore went
missing. The next day, after disappearing, he returned home,
walking unsteadily. He said he spent the night in a hotel and
awoke with a blank mind. Reading newspaper headlines about his
disappearance brought him to his senses. His doctor's verdict
was "Amnesia nervous breakdown."
A year later, in 1934, Jesse Livermore was bankrupt. He had lost
his entire trading fortune. How he did this is unknown. However,
this time, he was not destitute - his family annuities saved the
day. He and his wife sailed to Europe. "I hope to relieve my
mind of some of my troubles,” he told reporters.
How to Trade in Stocks “All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the
same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance,
and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns
recur on a constant basis.” —Jesse Livermore, How to Trade in Stocks
In late 1939, Jesse Livermore's son, Jesse Jr., suggested to his
father that he write a book about his experiences and techniques
in trading in the stock and commodity markets. This brought a
flash of life back into Jesse Livermore, and the book was
completed and published by Duell, Sloan and Pearce in March
1940. It was titled How to Trade in Stocks. The book did not
sell well, World War II was underway, and the general interest
in the stock market was low. His methods were still new and
controversial at the time, and they received mixed reviews from
stock market gurus of the period.
“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game
in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally
lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the
get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. ” —Jesse Livermore, How to Trade in Stocks
The End In the Squibb building at 745 Fifth Avenue, at the age of 63,
Jesse Livermore entered the Sherry-Netherland Hotel on November
28, 1940, at 4:30 in the afternoon. Sitting on a stool at the
end of the cloakroom, he withdrew a .32-caliber Colt automatic
pistol (he had bought the gun in 1928 while he was living in
Evermore), placed the barrel of the gun behind his right ear and
pulled the trigger, dying instantly.
The police revealed that there was a suicide note of eight small
handwritten pages in Jesse Livermore's personal notebook. It was
reported in the November 30 issue of the New York Tribune. The
press wanted to know what it said, and the police tersely
responded: “There was a leather-bound memo book found in Mr.
Livermore's pocket. It was addressed to his wife.” A police
spokesman read from the notebook: “My dear Nina: Can’t help it.
Things have been bad with me. I am tired of fighting. Can’t
carry on any longer. This is the only way out. I am unworthy of
your love. I am a failure. I am truly sorry, but this is the
only way out for me. Love Laurie”. |
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